Many models for the spread of infectious diseases in populations have been analyzed mathematically and applied to specific diseases. In this paper we have used SIR model to study the outbreak of measles epidemic in Albania during the year 2018. Two basic parameters of SIR model are determined using least square principle and other numerical techniques. The model can be used to predict in advance the dynamics of the disease and this can help finding the best possible strategies to control its spread.
Measles Mpidemic, SIR Model, Susceptible Population, Reproduction Function, Differential Equation, Least Square Principle.
[1] Anderson, R. M., & May, R. M. (1991). Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford University Press.
[2] Bino, S., Kureta, E., Tomini, E., Simaku, A., Daja, R., Vasili, A., Xhaferri, A., Alla, L., Robo, A., Nelaj, E., Preza, I. (2018). Measles Outbreak in Albania, 10 January - 8 May 2018. Bulletin of the Institute of Public Health No.3.
[3] Kenneth, F. K. (1993). The Cambridge world history of human disease. 871.
[4] Kermack, W. O., & McKendrick, A. G. (1927). A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the royal society of London. Series A, Containing papers of a mathematical and physical character 115, no. 772, (pp. 700-721).
[5] Ma, Z., & Li, J. (2009). Dynamical Modeling and Analysis of Epidemics. World Scientific.
[6] Report. (2018). Report of measles in Albania. Institute of Public Health.
[7] WHO. Retrieved from World Health Organization: http://www.euro.who.int/en/media-centre/sections/pressreleases/2019/measles-in-europe-record-number-of-bothsick-and-immunized
[8] WHO. Retrieved from World Health Organization: https://www.who.int/immunization/diseases/measles/en/
[Elfrida DISHMEMA , Lulezim HANELLI (2019) A SIR Model for Measles Disease Case for Albania IJIRCST Vol-6 Issue-4 Page No-38-43] (ISSN 2347 - 5552). www.ijircst.org
Elfrida DISHMEMA
Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Agriculture University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania e.dishmema@gmail.com